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Albert
Einstein claimed he never thought about the future. "It comes soon
enough," he would say. And you can see his point. What would have been
the good of worrying about our destiny when it was not of our making?
But life has changed since the great physicist's day. Sweeping changes
of our own creation now beset our world: carbon emissions, soaring
populations, cloning, rising extinction rates.
We
are changing our planet and its biosphere in ways that were once
unimaginable. We are also developing lifesaving technologies that would
have appeared equally incredible a few decades ago. Everywhere we
witness change. But what will this bring and how will it affect our
world?
In
this article, we address these questions in detail and explore the
issues involved, concerns that will shape the existence and lifestyles
of ourselves and our children. Some, notably those involved in medical
research, look very hopeful. Others, especially those concerned with
climate and biodiversity, look far less optimistic. Indeed, they appear
downright disturbing.
Overall, it
is sobering stuff, though we should not be too downhearted about our
prospects for life in 2020. As that other great guru of the 20th
century, Charles M. Schulz, creator of the 'Peanuts' cartoon, once
observed: "You needn't worry about the world coming to an end today. It
is already tomorrow in Australia."
Hot in the city
Whatever else we experience
in 2020, the impact of climate change will be inescapable. That's the
clear message from virtually every scientist working in the field. Last
century saw global atmospheric temperatures rising by 0.6˚C; in the
next decade and a half, we can expect much the same.
"Climate change will become
particularly noticeable at the poles," says James Lovelock, the British
scientist who developed the Gaia hypothesis, the idea that life itself
makes existence tolerable on Earth. "By 2020, the North Pole will be
becoming free of ice, and by the end of the decade we will be able to
sail straight across it. At the same time, the great glaciers of the
southern hemisphere and the West Antarctic ice sheet will be breaking
up."
The seas will rise
dramatically, flooding Earth's low-lying areas. Thus, by 2020, we will
have a very good idea of the fate that is awaiting our planet: heat,
flooding and desertification. "Essentially, for most people on the
planet, it will be like living through war," warns Lovelock. "It will
be grim, but we are all going to have to stick together in our own
communities."
It is an apocalyptic
vision. Nevertheless, Lovelock – one of the world's most distinguished
climate experts – is not alone in his prognosis. Graeme Pearman, of
Australia's national science agency, the CSIRO, also forecasts
cataclysmic changes. "The Great Barrier Reef is already suffering from
serious bleaching," he says. "Temperature increases are killing off the
coral and, with another one-degree increase in global temperatures in
prospect, we are going to see serious damage being done to it. Not just
from bleaching, but from damage from ever-worsening storms that are yet
another consequence of global warming." (See also 'The late Great
Barrier Reef', Cosmos 9, p 32).
Around 90 per cent of
people living today will still be alive in 2020, so these disturbances
will touch almost every family on Earth. Neither can we do anything to
halt them. Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide that have already
taken place make them inevitable. Preventing even greater horrors
should therefore be a scientific and political priority for the next
decade and a half, says Tim Flannery, professor at Macquarie University
in Sydney and author of the climatic bestseller, The Weather Makers.
And, most importantly, a new and comprehensive policy for curbing
carbon emissions both at home and in the workplace is now desperately
needed. As Flannery points out: "It's now too late to avoid changing
our world. But we still have time, if good policy is implemented, to
avoid disaster."
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